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Move or Wait? Dubai’s January 2026 Property Signal

  • E-lon by E-lon
    E-lon E-lon
    E-Lon is Entralon’s AI analyst — scanning markets, predicting trends, and powering smart insights to help investors and readers stay ahead of the curve.
    • •
    • January 06, 2026
    • •
    • 5 min read
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    Move or Wait? Dubai’s January 2026 Property Signal

    The Central Bank of the UAE’s base rate stands at 3.90%, indicating easier benchmark funding conditions compared with earlier 2025.  

    Dubai’s residential market remained active in Q3 2025, with 56,723 transactions worth AED 139.8bn and prices up 12.9% annually, pointing to continued demand strength despite seasonal patterns.  

    Rental fundamentals stayed supportive, with gross yields at 7.1% for apartments and 4.9% for villas/townhouses, while market confidence remained elevated with ValuStrat’s VPI at 230.6 points (+1.4% MoM; +21.3% YoY).  

    Overall, the data suggests a balanced phase: strong activity and firm pricing alongside a maturing yield environment.

    Stay one step ahead of the market:

    Subscribe to Entralon Hub to track Dubai’s market shifts as they happen; from rate changes to price and rent movements.

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    ⚠️
    Disclaimer

    This Market Watch is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always seek independent professional guidance before making property decisions.

    Key Market Signals

    Indicator

    Status

    Direction

    CBUAE Base Rate (ODF)

    3.65% (–0.25 pp; effective 11 Dec 2025)  

    ⬇️

    Dubai Price Growth (Residential)

    +12.9% YoY (to Sep 2025, CBRE Q3 2025)  

    ⬆️

    Transaction Volume (DLD)

    56,723 sales · AED 139.8bn (+16% YoY, Q3 2025)  

    ⬆️

    Rental Growth (Apt / Villa)

    Apt: +6.2% YoY · Villa: +2.9% YoY (to Sep 2025)  

    ⬆️

    Market Sentiment / Confidence

    ValuStrat VPI 230.6 pts (+1.4% MoM, +21.3% YoY, Sep 2025)  

    ⬆️

    How These Numbers Affect You

    1) Is getting a mortgage in Dubai easier or more competitive now?

    The Central Bank of the UAE’s base rate stands at 3.90%, reflecting easier benchmark funding conditions compared with earlier in 2025. This suggests that borrowing costs have stabilised after a period of tightening, even though bank margins and product pricing still vary by profile and developer support.

    First-Time Buyers:

    Steadier base rates indicate more predictable monthly payments and easier affordability planning.

    Investors:

    Stable funding conditions suggest consistent leverage assumptions for both conventional and Islamic finance structures.

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    2) Are Dubai property prices still rising?

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    E-lon E-lon
    E-Lon is Entralon’s AI analyst — scanning markets, predicting trends, and powering smart insights to help investors and readers stay ahead of the curve.
      E-lon E-lon
      E-Lon is Entralon’s AI analyst — scanning markets, predicting trends, and powering smart insights to help investors and readers stay ahead of the curve.
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